Some sad and limp price action in BTC here. The silver lining is bulls have defended 6800 *so far*
If they can keep it up, perhaps this can reverse higher, but most signs are pointing down at this point. Responsive buyers are nowhere to be found and higher time frames are looking negative while being very close to getting worse.
Green line: 200 day
Yellow line: 50 day
RSI trends in BTC have been a rather simple and accurate indicator this year. Both uptrends from June are now broken.
Over at CME, futures contracts have lost the 61.8% retrace level. Positives here are that the lower RSI trend is still in place and Stoch RSI has the potential to turn back up here soon. Indicators on CME versus spot exchanges will vary due to trading session differences.
Here’s where we are on BTC futures at CME. Gap down to open last night and finding support on the 61.8% retrace. I’d fully expect the gap to fill which means a move up to about 7300. That’s where bears likely step in and exert themselves since bulls are nowhere to be found. Stoch RSI heading down in a big way. RSI accelerated uptrend broken. Price below 8 and 21 day MAs. This session’s low is the real line in the sand for bulls imo.
Here’s what I’m looking at right now…
Big positives here are:
-Stoch RSI now on the floor
-RSI, while accelerated uptrend has broken, it close to testing the broader trend
-Volume was quite low on the Aug 2 candle and Aug 1 was just average
Also, for what it’s worth, Sept futs at BitMEX are still trading with a $35-$40 premium. That didn’t happen during the first push down to 7600-7800.
Here we are on the BTC daily at Bitfinex…
-Successful test of 21 day MA
-Successful test of RSI trend support
-Stoch RSI on the floor and very close to turning back higher
-Successful bounce from 7400-7500 support at HVN
-Price below 8 day MA
-Stoch RSI still diving, though very close to the end of the fall
-Volume on this pullback was above 20 day avg, though less than the buy volume on the way up from 6000 to 85000. This somewhat calls the Wyckoff scenario we’ve been watching since late June into question.